Planting an Apple Tree - Acting When the Future is Unclear
When organisations face decline, the rational choice is often retreat. Yet true leadership shows in choosing to build, even in uncertainty. Pursuing modest, risky initiatives can revive culture, unlock new value, and signal courage - the defining act that can outlast the crisis.
Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree.
Credit: Unknown (Often falsely attributed to Martin Luther)
The quarterly numbers had been sliding for months. Market share was falling, customer loyalty was shifting, and competitors had innovated faster. Analysts no longer asked if recovery was possible. They asked when management would concede defeat.
In the boardroom, discussion narrowed to two options: a managed decline or a sale. Every financial model pointed in the same direction and the advisers agreed. Investment in new ventures at that point looked reckless.
Yet in a smaller room, a different group of employees refused to accept that the only task left was closing things down carefully. They found a neglected market opportunity, modest in size but real. The odds of success were poor, the timeline long, and it would not rescue the whole organisation. But it was something constructive.
When the proposal was brought forward, it was presented with full honesty about its limitations. It was not a grand turnaround plan. It could fail. But it demanded skills the firm still had, relationships that still had value, and knowledge that was in danger of being lost.
Leadership faced a stark choice. They could follow the spreadsheets, consolidate cash, and oversee a dignified exit. Or they could allow a team to invest in something that might provide a future, even if the outcome was far from certain.
They chose to proceed.
The initiative started quietly with a small budget and a clear objective. The wider business environment did not improve, results remained poor, and analysts stayed sceptical. But something else began to happen. The people who worked on the new project felt energised. They moved quickly, experimented openly, and discovered new pride in their work. Others in the company noticed, and soon different departments began asking where they too could build rather than retreat.
Not every experiment worked. Some projects failed to deliver and some markets proved unprofitable. But as activity spread, employees rediscovered their capability to create. The culture shifted ahead of the numbers. Staff came to work not only to defend a shrinking revenue base but to test opportunities. The company began attracting people motivated not by safety but by challenge.
Eighteen months later, a handful of initiatives had gained genuine traction. One became a significant new line of business. Analysts revised their ratings, shifting the narrative from inevitable decline to possible recovery.
The company that eventually stabilised was not the same as before. It was leaner, more focused, and active in different markets. Several legacy businesses were sold and the organisation chart had been reshaped. What remained was not a restoration of former glory but the beginning of a new chapter, rooted in the decision to invest rather than withdraw.
During this period a new chief executive was appointed. She often referred to the moment when, against all logic, the company took the decision to build. In her view it was not an act of denial, but an act of courage. It signalled to employees that even at the difficult end of a cycle, leadership had chosen to look ahead rather than simply close down.
Every organisation faces moments when all the data recommends caution, consolidation, or retreat. The analysis may be excellent. The logic may be flawless. But analysis cannot answer a leadership question: whether to define the organisation by its decline or by its willingness to create while under threat.
Such choices are risky. Many new initiatives will not succeed. Cash may be consumed without results. But the discipline of acting with courage in uncertainty reaffirms the purpose of the organisation: to make things, to serve customers, to solve problems. Companies that survive crises almost always made this choice at some point.
Organisations are remembered, in crisis or recovery, not for how carefully they managed decline but for whether they had the conviction to keep building when the future looked doubtful.
The lesson is straightforward. It is not about blind optimism, nor about resistance to facts. It is about courage to take constructive action in the face of uncertainty, knowing outcomes cannot be guaranteed. Would you plant your apple tree?
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David Seacombe